Sector focus: Agribusiness

BDO Business Wellbeing Index - May 2025 report

Business performance soars for agribusiness leaders - putting growth at the top of the agenda

New Zealand’s agribusiness sector has experienced mixed fortunes in recent years, from the hugely damaging flooding and storms of 2023 to the high commodity prices of 2022, subsequent lows of 2023 and significant rebounds in 2025. The May 2025 BDO Business Wellbeing Index indicates that 79% of agribusiness leaders felt positive about their business performance in the two weeks before the survey, marking the highest level of positivity since our first survey wave. This optimism extends into the future, with 83% of respondents expecting to feel positive about their business performance in six months’ time.

Agribusiness results over time

Higher commodity prices are likely a major contributor to the positive sentiment among agribusiness leaders. At $10 per kgMS, Fonterra’s farmgate milk price forecast is considerably higher than what we’ve seen in recent years, and the nation’s red meat sector is rebounding with farm profitability and export returns expected to rise this year. In addition, the kiwifruit industry continues to strengthen and Zespri is forecasting strong returns for growers. 

While expectations of future business performance are high for the agriculture sector, all eyes will be on US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and how these will impact New Zealand exports. The US is a key market for our primary sector, particularly for beef, so additional tariffs will be widely felt. The viticulture sector will also be keeping a close watch on any further US tariff announcements. 2024 marked the sixteenth year in a row that retail sales of New Zealand wine increased in the US, making it a major export market. 

Agribusiness leaders are currently feeling largely positive about their cash flow, but they’re less confident in their business financial performance. 65% of agribusiness leaders say they have felt positive about their cash flow all or most of the time in the last two weeks, but just 56% say they felt positive about their financial performance. This suggests that while short-term liquidity may not be an issue for many agribusiness leaders, concern remains over the broader view of their business profitability and overall financial health. 

This is clearly a pain point for the sector, with financials the leading cause of negative wellbeing for agribusiness leaders. This may be due to the ever-changing market – particularly international trade conditions and commodity prices – and weather-related fluctuations. The wellbeing of this sector remains relatively low compared to previous years, suggesting agribusiness leaders should continue to focus on themselves as well as their businesses.  


Business performance for construction

Tips for agribusiness leaders

  • Keep a close eye on numbers in your business, especially your cash flow and overall finances. Forecast regularly and make adjustments in line with market conditions.
  • Stay connected with your operational management, act clearly and early, and be proactive in dealing with challenges before they intensify. Don’t put your head in the sand. 
  • Reach out to your professional team, including your trusted adviser. They care about you and your business. Communicate early and clearly with your financier if you expect any changes or deviations.
  • Keep in touch with your community and neighbours. Have those over-the-fence conversations and get off the farm and socialise to look after your wellbeing. 

For further wellbeing support, view our Wellbeing section here.

Further support:

Expert thoughts

Charles Rau | BDO Gisborne

Charles Rau

National Agribusiness Sector Leader, Advisory & Tax Director
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“It’s encouraging to see the positive business performance sentiment reported by New Zealand’s agribusiness leaders, especially after such a challenging few years for many farmers. The agriculture sector is hard-working and resilient, and the more favourable commodity prices for many products will be warmly welcomed. While business positivity is high for many, it remains essential for agribusiness leaders to look after themselves and focus on their mental health. Whether it’s a colleague or fellow farmer, support group, business advisers or friends, it’s important to reach out and ask for help.”