
Charles Rau
New Zealand’s agribusiness sector has experienced mixed fortunes in recent years, from the hugely damaging flooding and storms of 2023 to the high commodity prices of 2022, subsequent lows of 2023 and significant rebounds in 2025. The May 2025 BDO Business Wellbeing Index indicates that 79% of agribusiness leaders felt positive about their business performance in the two weeks before the survey, marking the highest level of positivity since our first survey wave. This optimism extends into the future, with 83% of respondents expecting to feel positive about their business performance in six months’ time.
Higher commodity prices are likely a major contributor to the positive sentiment among agribusiness leaders. At $10 per kgMS, Fonterra’s farmgate milk price forecast is considerably higher than what we’ve seen in recent years, and the nation’s red meat sector is rebounding with farm profitability and export returns expected to rise this year. In addition, the kiwifruit industry continues to strengthen and Zespri is forecasting strong returns for growers.
While expectations of future business performance are high for the agriculture sector, all eyes will be on US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and how these will impact New Zealand exports. The US is a key market for our primary sector, particularly for beef, so additional tariffs will be widely felt. The viticulture sector will also be keeping a close watch on any further US tariff announcements. 2024 marked the sixteenth year in a row that retail sales of New Zealand wine increased in the US, making it a major export market.
Agribusiness leaders are currently feeling largely positive about their cash flow, but they’re less confident in their business financial performance. 65% of agribusiness leaders say they have felt positive about their cash flow all or most of the time in the last two weeks, but just 56% say they felt positive about their financial performance. This suggests that while short-term liquidity may not be an issue for many agribusiness leaders, concern remains over the broader view of their business profitability and overall financial health.
This is clearly a pain point for the sector, with financials the leading cause of negative wellbeing for agribusiness leaders. This may be due to the ever-changing market – particularly international trade conditions and commodity prices – and weather-related fluctuations. The wellbeing of this sector remains relatively low compared to previous years, suggesting agribusiness leaders should continue to focus on themselves as well as their businesses.
Tips for agribusiness leaders
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Charles Rau