El Niño: Prepare, don’t panic.

Forecasts of a hot, dry and windy El Niño summer may be concerning for farmers, but they should prompt preparation rather than panic. Similar principles apply in planning carefully towards most extreme seasonal weather events, and while the actual impacts of this El Niño remain uncertain – with potential to vary by region, farm and farming system – often the best place to start is by focusing on factors within your control. This can involve calling on the lessons learned from previous climatic disruptions, regardless of scale, including your own insights, those of industry peers and expert advisors.

With this in mind, we spoke to BDO Advisory Partner and Agribusiness specialist, Chris Harvey and Associate, Kelsey Fisher, to find out effecive planning might look liks for New Zealand farmers in preparing for potential pressure points as the warmer season approaches. 
 

“Dry summers are not new territory for New Zealand farmers, many of whom have navigated difficult seasons before. They know their land, livestock and farming systems better than anyone. That experience matters. The priority now is to use it alongside the forecast, consider what a prolonged dry period could mean and make practical decisions early.” – Chris Harvey, Advisory Principal and Agribusiness Specialist, BDO Taranaki 

In this article, Chris and Kelsey share practical steps for farmers to take now to help them prepare for the forecast conditions as summer approaches. 
 

Plan for the conditions on your farm 

El Niño will not affect every farm or region in the same way, and forecasts may shift as the season develops. Farmers should therefore use the outlook as an early signal to review their plans, identify vulnerabilities and consider what actions may be needed if dry conditions persist. 
 

“A plan gives farmers a framework for making timely, fact-based decisions on their own farm, rather than waiting until pressure builds. It also creates space to speak with advisers, bankers and suppliers before support becomes urgent.” – Kelsey Fisher, Associate, BDO Taranaki 

Kelsey recommends focusing on the following practical steps while continuing to monitor how the season develops. 
 

Practical steps for managing dry conditions 

• Review feed requirements: Complete a feed budget through to the end of autumn and stress-test it against low- or no-rainfall scenarios. Identify potential gaps early and consider securing supplementary feed before demand increases prices. 
• Act early on stock management: Identify and cull low-performing cows, bring pregnancy testing forward where appropriate and reduce stock numbers if available feed is limited. 
• Model the financial impact: Prepare cash flow forecasts for a normal summer, a dry summer and a severe drought. Discuss the results with your accountant and bank early so funding options can be considered before they are needed. 
• Set clear decision triggers: Agree in advance on the conditions that will prompt action. For example, drying off cows when their body condition score reaches a predetermined level can help protect next season’s performance. 
• Use your support network: Seek advice from trusted advisers, experienced local farmers and organisations such as DairyNZ, Federated Farmers and Rural Support. 

 

Focus on what you can control 

Dry conditions can create significant operational and financial pressure, but they are not unfamiliar territory for New Zealand farmers. Drawing on past experience, planning early and setting clear decision points can help farming businesses respond with greater clarity as conditions change. 

Your local BDO adviser can help you stress-test cash flow forecasts, assess seasonal scenarios and understand the financial implications for your farming business.