Waiting for certainty could be the biggest risk for New Zealand businesses

Uncertainty has become a constant in the operating environment for New Zealand businesses. The 2026 BDO New Zealand Risk Landscape Report, released today by accounting and advisory firm BDO, highlights that the biggest risk facing business leaders may not be any single external threat. It may be delaying important decisions while waiting for conditions to improve.

Exploring global themes in a New Zealand context

 The annual BDO New Zealand report explores the key themes identified in the BDO Global Risk Landscape Report and what they mean for local business leaders, with expert insight from BDO's Risk Advisory National Leader, Tarunesh Singh.

The BDO Global Risk Landscape Report surveyed 500 business leaders around the world, to explore the attitudes of risk leaders towards evolving challenges such as geopolitical tensions, artificial intelligence, and supply chains, and offers practical takeaways to help manage risks.

Of the top global risks, Tarunesh sees cyber and AI, geopolitics and fraud as three of the most relevant for New Zealand businesses. However, for local business leaders, regulatory compliance also warrants specific attention. While it may not sit in the global top three, New Zealand businesses are operating in an environment shaped by increasing regulatory complexity, changing reporting obligations and heightened expectations around governance, transparency and accountability.

How can New Zealand businesses manage risk while moving forward?

Risk is not a reason to stand still. It is a reason to make more informed decisions, Tarunesh explains:

“For many New Zealand businesses, materialised risk and disruption is no longer the exception. It has become the operating norm. Over the past six years we’ve faced a global pandemic, geopolitical tension, conflict, severe weather events, inflation, supply chain disruption and the rapid rise of AI and emerging technologies. For business owners and leaders, this changes the calculation. There may no longer be perfect conditions or an obvious right time to act. Fuel price surges, shipping and logistics disruption, border settings that affect immigration and access to talent, inflation and price volatility, cost-of-living pressure and political instability, at home and abroad, all paint the same picture.

Waiting for certainty may mean waiting indefinitely, and the cost of delay can be easy to underestimate. While one business holds off, others are adapting, investing and accelerating. The real risk is not making the wrong move in uncertain conditions. It is standing still while the environment, and your competitors, keep moving.”

Tarunesh highlights that New Zealand businesses can build resilience by focusing on the areas they can control, including people, systems, data, controls and planning. Cyber, AI, fraud and compliance should be treated as connected governance issues, not isolated technical problems. Delaying succession, investment or growth decisions may create more risk than acting carefully with good advice. In short, business owners do not need perfect certainty, but they do need clear options, trusted advice and a practical plan.

“In my own work with clients across sectors, a consistent pattern is emerging. The businesses that keep moving are not the ones with the most certainty. They are the ones with the clearest view of their own risks. Much of the advice being sought right now is less about predicting what happens next, and more about making confident decisions in spite of it - how to invest, restructure, transition ownership or adopt new technology without taking on risk they cannot see or manage. What people are waiting for varies, but the theme is familiar. Some are waiting for interest rates or the economy to settle, some for the General Election and policy direction to become clear, and others for the right successor, the right buyer or the right moment to modernise. The common thread is a hope that acting later will feel safer. In many cases, it will not.”

Tarunesh notes that what stands out about the businesses continuing to move forward is discipline rather than appetite for risk. They understand where their real exposures sit, they have tested their controls, and they surround themselves with the right advice before they need it. That preparation is precisely what gives them the confidence to act.

Encouragingly, he also adds that there are areas where businesses can move forward now, provided the right safeguards are in place:

• Growth and investment decisions can proceed where they are supported by a clear plan, sound financials and honest stress-testing.
• Ownership transition and succession can begin well ahead of any exit, through early conversations and a documented roadmap.
• Digital and AI adoption can accelerate where it is matched by strong governance, clear accountability and controls that are tested in practice.

 In each case, the safeguard is not delay. It is doing the groundwork that makes action defensible.

Media enquiries and related resources

 BDO Risk Advisory National Leader, Tarunesh Singh, is available for comment. In the first instance and to schedule an interview, please contact Michal Petrus, BDO Head of Clients & Marketing.

• View here the 2026 BDO New Zealand Risk Landscape Report.
• Click here to view and download digital photos of Tarunesh Singh, BDO Risk Advisory National Leader.