Resilience and opportunity: What’s next for New Zealand’s deals market in 2026?
Resilience and opportunity: What’s next for New Zealand’s deals market in 2026?
New Zealand’s mid-market deals environment in 2025 is showing resilience and cautious optimism. BDO’s Deal Advisory team bring specialist experience in mid-market transactions and have observed that while deal activity remains sector-specific, there has been a modest increase in completed transactions. Deals are still taking longer to complete and buyers remain cautious, but continued interest rate cuts and improving company earnings are expected to boost confidence and activity in the coming year.
“We’re cautiously optimistic about next year and excited about ’27,” says Andrew Beagley, Deal Advisory Partner at BDO Auckland.
This sentiment reflects a broader sense of anticipation across the market as conditions begin to shift in a more favourable direction.
Andrew and fellow BDO Deal Advisory Partner, Daniel Martin, recently joined business journalist Madison Malone to discuss the outlook for mid-market merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in New Zealand, sector trends, market resilience, and practical advice for business leaders as they prepare for transactions in 2026 and beyond. Watch their discussion below to learn more about the key transaction trends observed during 2025 and predictions on what might be ahead for 2026.
Reflecting on 2025: A year of resilience and sector focus
As we look back on the past year, the mid-market deals environment in New Zealand has shown remarkable resilience. Andrew Grace, BDO’s National Deal Advisory Lead, adds;
“While 2025 continued many of the challenges of the previous year, our Deal Advisory team has noted an uptick in completed deals, and based on current levels of enquiry and activity, indications are that 2026 should see a positive increase in deal activity across a wider range of sectors.”
Despite these headwinds, BDO clients have remained active, and the market, though muted, has not been without opportunity. The resilience of New Zealand’s mid-market has been evident, with business owners and investors adapting to a challenging environment.
Sector trends shaping the New Zealand deals market
Deal activity in 2025 has been distinctly sector specific. Approximately 60% of BDO’s completed deals have been concentrated in three key sectors:
- Infrastructure services (predominantly waste management)
- Technology (SaaS and IT services)
- Manufacturing
These sectors continue to attract interest, largely due to their recurring cash flow models and the scale of assets involved.
Looking ahead: Cautious optimism for 2026 and beyond
The outlook for the next 12 months is cautiously optimistic. BDO’s Deal Advisory team anticipate a lift in both deal value and volume, particularly as interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate consumer demand and support a rebound in company earnings. This should, in turn, give investors greater confidence to pursue new transactions.
“I think the next 12 months will be a little bit more positive,” says Daniel Martin, BDO Deal Advisory Partner. “I think there'll be a greater level of deal value and volume, especially with continued interest rate cuts, which will hopefully flow into consumer demand. I think that companies’ earnings level will rebound slightly, so it will give investors a little bit more confidence to go forward with transactions again.”
In the short term, BDO’s Deal Advisory team expect to see continued carve-outs and divestments from global businesses revisiting their New Zealand operations, especially in IT and related sectors. Consolidation is likely to persist, and over the medium term, we are optimistic that 2026 and 2027 could be a particularly active years, especially if pent-up demand is released post-election.
Tips for business leaders navigating the M&A landscape
For business owners and leaders considering M&A activity, BDO’s Deal Advisory team suggest taking into account the following tips:
- Proceed with caution, but confidence: The environment still requires careful navigation, but opportunities exist for those who are prepared.
- Focus on technology and AI: Investors should pay close attention to technology due diligence and the growing role of AI. Having the right experts involved is crucial.
- Don’t neglect the fundamentals: Traditional financial due diligence and robust preparation remain as important as ever.
- Be mindful of timelines: Deals are taking longer to complete, so plan accordingly - but there is hope that processes will speed up in the medium term.
Need help?
New Zealand’s mid-market deals environment continues to evolve, shaped by sector trends, global influences, and local resilience.
If you’re considering your next move, BDO’s Deal Advisory team is here to help guide you through the process. Reach out to your local adviser for more information.