Aquaculture in 2026: Navigating a tide of uncertainty

Article
Published: 

While the primary industries continue to underpin New Zealand’s economy, representing 82.9% of merchandise exports and 15.3% of GDP, the operating environment for the food and fibre sector has shifted markedly since our last update.

After a record year in 2025, with export revenue reaching $650 million, New Zealand’s aquaculture sector is now operating against a more challenging backdrop. Seafood exports continue to be driven by four key species: mussels, rock lobster (crayfish), salmon and hoki – heightening sensitivity to changes in demand, pricing and input costs.

 

“For every week that the situation overseas continues, the sector will likely take around six weeks to recover. The rise in diesel prices, plastic and cool storage costs is layered upon decreasing overseas demand and softening product prices in certain products. We’re now seeing orders cancelled by overseas buyers, with some even being turned around on the water.” – Gilbert Robertson, BDO Aquaculture specialist and Director, BDO Marlborough Tasman


Following double-digit growth in 2025, the Government set a goal to grow the aquaculture sector to $3 billion in annual revenue by 2035. This was supported by an investment of $11.72 million in a project to boost open-ocean aquaculture around the country. The sector started 2026 on a strong footing, but there are a number of ongoing challenges facing businesses on top of the overseas uncertainty.  

 

Challenges facing the aquaculture industry in 2026

Spat availability remains a key constraint for the mussel sector. Limited availability and low survival rates of wild spat mean crop lines cannot always be fully seeded, leaving capacity unused and reducing productivity across the supply chain. While the industry is investing in hatchery and nursery-based systems to improve early growth and survival, these gains are currently being offset by growing market pressures. 

High temperatures impacting salmon harvest. While high summer temperatures signal good news for holidaymakers, this has a negative impact on New Zealand’s salmon export revenue, reducing harvest in some farms and salmon availability. “Our Marine Environment 2025” drawing on NIWA-authored research, reports that New Zealand’s oceans are warming faster than the global average. Prolonged elevated water temperatures have been associated with higher mortality and slower growth on some salmon farms, which can reduce future harvest volumes. 

More competition and softer pricing for rock lobster (crayfish)
Following a bumper year in 2023, hitting record export prices and revenues thanks to high demand from China, the price of New Zealand’s crayfish product has now softened since Australia came back into the market in 2024. 
 

"Input costs - especially fuel and labour - remain high for crayfish fishing, and increasingly businesses are seeing demand for higher volumes of smaller-sized crayfish, which leads to longer seasons as fishers need to catch more to get the same tonnage."

 

What can businesses in this space do to weather the storm?

Understandably, the major concerns for businesses in the aquaculture sector amidst the current global uncertainty are being able to service their farms, harvesting crops and getting their product to market. 

Recent order cancellations and softer pricing are placing renewed pressure on cashflows and forward planning, with limited visibility on when conditions may stabilise.

In this environment, disciplined cashflow management is essential. Here are some steps that Gilbert recommends businesses consider taking:

  • Forecast cash weekly, stress-test key assumptions, and act early.
  • Tighten working capital by staying on top of debtors, revisiting terms of trade, and engaging early with your bank and key stakeholders (suppliers and customers).
  • Keep a forward calendar for tax and other commitments, and talk with your accountant or tax adviser about options to smooth payments if provisional tax no longer reflects current-year profitability.

You can find lots of helpful tips for managing cashflow, negotiating the structure of your debt, refreshing your market strategy and more in our tip library here. 
 

“It is a challenging time, so it’s important that businesses in this space ensure they have the practical expertise, and the financial and business support they need.”

 

How BDO can help

At BDO, we help aquaculture business leaders and operators get to grips with their numbers to make decisions that support sustainable growth. We work closely with clients across all of their business operations, not just the day-to-day accounting. This includes support with business strategies, planning, modelling, and budgeting.  

Key takeaways

  • New Zealand aquaculture outlook for 2026 is more uncertain despite record 2025 export revenue. After reaching about $650m in exports in 2025, the sector is facing softer overseas demand, order cancellations, and reduced pricing visibility, making forward planning harder for operators and owners.
  • Input-cost inflation is squeezing margins across seafood farming and fishing. Higher fuel/diesel, labour, plastics, freight and cold-storage costs are compounding pressure on profitability, especially when export prices soften or volumes are disrupted.
  • Mussel farming remains constrained by spat availability and survival rates. Limited wild spat and uneven early survival can leave crop lines under-seeded, reducing farm and processing utilisation even as the industry invests in hatchery and nursery solutions.
  • Climate-driven warming waters are a growing risk for salmon farming. Prolonged elevated water temperatures can slow growth and increase mortality on some salmon farms, potentially lowering future harvest volumes and export revenue.
  • Rock lobster (crayfish) exports face stronger competition and softer pricing. Increased supply competition (including Australian product re-entering the China market) plus ongoing high fuel and labour costs is shifting demand toward higher volumes of smaller crayfish and longer seasons to achieve target tonnage.

Authors